The decentralised prophecy marketplace height Augur has seen a significant drop-off in actively traded markets over the last few weeks.
Here we will take a low dive into the information of the 30 biggest markets now hosted on the Augur height and look at the differences between the markets that are still actively traded and those that have already ended.
A bit of credentials on Augur
Augur is a cryptocurrency height that provides a decentralised predictions marketplace for item speculation. The height covers a accumulation of prophecy markets like sports and politics, all the way to ‘time of death’ markets (or assassination markets).
In elementary terms, you use the Augur height to make predictions, using Augur’s local token to energy your guesses. If your foresee is correct, you are rewarded. What distinguishes Augur from a normal betting marketplace is that no centralised singular celebration sits in the middle, clarification that users are expected to compensate reduce prices (on average).
The REP token acts as the application token to give liquidity on Augur. It has a marketplace tip of just over $100 million at the time of writing.
In early Dec 2018, Coin Rivet brought you the story of how Augur seemed to be building some poignant momentum.
A look at the tip 30 markets today
Using information from the height tracker on prediction.global, we can see that it lists the “money at stake” at just over $1.7 million. When looking at the tip 30 markets, the sum is just over $1.5 million.
This figure, however, is a little false after you mangle down the markets between those that are ‘active’ and those that are already ‘ended’.
The thing that really stands out is the fact that of the tip 30 markets, 25 of the markets have already ended. This means that just 5 markets are actively traded, and they only have a sum volume of supports at interest of just over $30,000.
Large markets have already ended
The markets that have already finished on the height had a sum value at interest of $1.47 million. Just the tip two markets made up over $1 million of this total. Those markets were “Which celebration will control the House after the 2018 US Midterm Election?” and “Will the cost of Ethereum surpass $500 by the end of 2018?”
Augur metrics display ~$2m ‘total income at stake’ embody markets that have already ended.
— Alex Sunnarborg (@alexsunnarborg) January 10, 2019
Augur central weekly news not display the full story
Just yesterday, Augur expelled their weekly report and staid that their “Open Interest was $2,040,934.63 USD”.
By my definition, I don’t think it’s really scold to systematise markets that have already finished as “open interest”. we know that supports might still be sealed in the intelligent agreement and are nonetheless to be entirely settled, but arising reports like this is tortuous the law at the very least.
This opinion was also common by Alex Sunnarborg on Twitter, who pronounced that “if we bar markets that have finished there is $100k sum income at interest on Augur [platform]”.
Gambling is still one of the fasting flourishing industries online. If Augur really wants to contest with the big players in this space, then it will need to think a bit harder about how to attract incomparable liquidity providers onto the platform’s markets.
It’s still early days for Augur, but if the height wants to clear the $100 million-plus valuation, then it needs to be attracting more than the current 500 weekly active users.